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TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this administration's hallmark is coming too late to the party.

A headline came over the wires yesterday, and it caused me to throw my hands up in shock: The SEC is debating new short-selling rules for the market.

I said to myself, "They have to be kidding."

How can they be so obtuse?

How can they not get what is going on?

When the market bottomed on July 15, three things occurred:

the Congress got religion on the housing bill, and the president went along;

gasoline and oil peaked; and

the SEC finally decided to crack down on the reckless bear raids that were making it impossible for our financials to refinance.

The financials then rallied huge, just huge, and the prudent ones, like Merrill's (NYSE: MER) (Cramer's Take) John Thain, took advantage of the short-selling crackdown and first, brilliantly, said he didn't need capital, exacerbating the plight of the shorts, and then jammed on a gigantic equity offering that will let Merrill get through this period.

Henry Paulson is maneuvering himself into the history books by forcing Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) into a spiral of doom from which they can't recover. He had plenty of help from the directors and executives who sit atop them. But it's becoming clear that since Saturday's Barron's article, laying out the path to failure, events are spiraling out of Fannie and Freddie's control.

The anonymous senior government source in the Barron's article said that unless Fannie and Freddie could raise at least $10 billion each, the government would bail them out while wiping out common shareholders and eliminating the preferred dividend. This would lead to a sell off of bad loans, a split into smaller pieces, and maybe selling those pieces back to the public. All these activities are a government gift to Wall Street, which will get to do all these deals.

Events are following this predicted pattern as Fannie and Freddie struggle to raise capital. The New York Times reports that investors are not enthusiastic about the most recent efforts to raise capital by Freddie Mac. It reports that on Tuesday, Freddie Mac raised $3 billion in five-year debt but the "1.13 percentage points [premium] over the rate the federal government pays for comparable borrowing" was more than double the "0.6 points" premium it paid earlier in the year.

Sometimes -- but by no means always -- the stupid questions are the most illuminating.

Tuesday's 'stupid question' concerns stress and the U.S. economy. Namely, could the U.S. economy handle more housing stress? Or, put another way, what would the U.S. economy look like with another round of major write-offs for housing-related losses?

"It's not an economic model we want to project, but project we must," economist David H. Wang said. "First, for one thing, another round of large write-offs would, as they say, end all doubt regarding a U.S. recession. We would record negative GDP for Q3 and Q4, at minimum, most likely for Q1 2009 as well."

"Second, you're looking at additional consolidation in investment banking and commercial banking," Wang said. "Third, there would be considerable U.S. Government involvement, the scope and amount of intervention by the U.S. Treasury and Fed [U.S. Federal Reserve] is difficult to specify, until the size of the problem is known."

It's hard to identify a silver lining in the above, but Wang found one, "but we don't want to go there," he said. Another series of large, housing-related write-offs "would most likely propel Congressionally-backed, federally-directed structural changes in banking, mortgage finance, securities, and financial regulation," Wang said.

"It's one thing if the nature of the bailout is another $50 or $100 billion. But if it amounts to the takeover of a large bank or Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), the American economy would see its biggest changes since the New Deal," Wang said. "These changes would most likely end, once and for all, the 'heads-the-banks-win/tails-the-government-pays' banking system. You'd most likely see a two-tier banking system."

Not the 'end of the beginning' for housing losses?

Moreover, there are signs that it's not 'the end of the beginning' regarding housing and credit market stress, at least in the view of the former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund.

The stock market was down yesterday and it is down again today. Bearish sentiment is roaming through Wall Street right now, so I thought I would look back on another occasion when the market was going through similar turmoil and I wrote about the following eight stocks, which I thought would be "safe havens" in such a storm.

Six of the eight did well and two did not, and of course one of those two was a disaster. Among the losers, I do not think anyone is fretting about UPS, which is still one of the few triple-A rated companies along with Berkshire Hathaway. It has been well reported that the slowing economy and higher fuel prices have been the major culprits affecting UPS's earnings. In the case of WaMu, it's demise has also been well reported, but at the time I recommended it WaMu had a stellar reputation of growth and high yield for over two decades. There is no hiding, it turned out to be a lousy pick and an ANTI-SAFE Haven

NOT SAFE:

United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) closed Monday at $65.30 down from $78.40; a 16.71% loss

Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) closed Monday at $4.21 down from $45.50; a 98% loss.

Fortunately the remaining six picks have done very, very well. If you had bought the pool, the average gain over the last two years would have been 7.14%. Adding the dividends over the two years would have raised this to 13.14%.

In an exciting bit of news for early adopters north of the border, the new BlackBerry Bold smartphone from Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM) is slated to hit Canadian shelves this Thursday, August 21. Because RIMM has signed service pacts with various wireless carriers in different regions, the Bold is being rolled out gradually around the globe. The snappy new device has already launched in Germany, but U.S. carrier AT&T (NYSE: T) is so far keeping mum about its plans for the Bold's Stateside debut.

The latest addition to the CrackBerry family is aimed toward business users; as proof, even Rupert Murdoch is getting in on the act. The Wall Street Journal Digital Network announced today that it's launched a new mobile application to provide immediate access to headlines in the WSJ family of financial publications (including Barron's, MarketWatch, and All Things Digital). The application is available for free on most BlackBerry smartphones.

Naturally, the Bold has already garnered comparisons to Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone -- but there are a few notable differences. While Jobs & Co. are slowly trying to make headway into the corporate world, their core audience is still top-heavy with tech-gadget completists and trust-fund hipsters. Meanwhile, BlackBerry's already in business with business, and the new WSJ app is just an extra boost of its Street cred.

Recent reports reveal a surprising amount of criminal activity in the mortgage business. This is particularly true in states whose names end in the letter A, such as Florida and Nevada. Two particular forms of illegal behavior are the licensing of mortgage brokers with criminal records and homebuilders' use of bribes -- or 'incentives' -- to encourage people to buy over-priced houses without disclosing them to lenders as required by law. Think I'm kidding?

DSNews reports that last week, Florida's mortgage commissioner resigned after it was revealed that he granted mortgage brokerage licenses to people with criminal records. Specifically, DSNews wrote that Don Saxon, who had been Chairman of the Office of Financial Regulation (OFR) had "allowed more than 10,000 people with criminal histories – including bank robbers, racketeers, defrauders, embezzlers, identity thieves, and tax evaders, among others – to work in Florida's mortgage lending industry between 2000 and 2007. These convicted felons had expropriated more than $85 million from lenders and homeowners during that time."

Meanwhile, things were not much more legal in Nevada. That's where the Wall Street Journal reports that the Las Vegas, NV branch of home builder Centex (NYSE: CTX) paid off the credit cards and mortgages of potential borrowers to entice people to buy homes priced from $350,000 to $550,000. The FBI is investigating allegations that Centex did not always disclose these 'incentives' to lenders as required by law.

Picture this: a U.S. neighborhood where no homes are being constructed, for miles.

In the current economic climate, the above could be a snapshot in any region of the country (or, sadly, in every region of the country).

U.S. housing starts fell to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 965,000 in July, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Tuesday (pdf). It was the lowest level for housing starts in 17 years.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected July U.S. housing starts to total 950,000.

Further, housing starts have declined 29.6% in the past 12 months. Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks Tuesday he knows why.

"It doesn't take a Harvard mathematician to deduce this one. Builders are competing for sales with the large supply of foreclosed homes, as well as with home owners in good standing with banks, who are trying to sell their homes," Langan said. "So the great U.S. homebuilder pullback continues."

The U.S. economy is growing at a minuscule rate or is already in recession. Job growth, save a few sectors, is non-existent. Bank mortgage qualifying requirements are at their most rigorous levels in a decade. Investors / readers ask, 'where are the buyers going to come from to spark a rebound in the housing sector?'

The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reports that producer prices launched upward at a 1.2% monthly rate in July. The rise in the PPI -- which was 0.7 percentage points faster than the 0.5% rate economists expected -- was the result of rising wholesale prices for energy spreading to "automobiles, prescription drugs and capital equipment."

Since the price of oil has dropped 24% from $147 to $112, should we all be relieved that July's number is a temporary blip? Let's hope so, because if not, rising wholesale prices make it even harder for businesses to make a profit when consumer demand is weak.

These higher wholesale prices mean that businesses have two options to maintain profits: keep prices the same but cut costs in other areas by finding productivity improvements, cutting back on payrolls and salaries and the likes, or raise prices to offset those rising costs.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says there's a big disconnect between the trade, orchestrated by the funds, and the real-world demand.

How can anyone actually own oil or natural gas through this relentless assault on price? I know when it was going up, the talk was that all of these new funds were indexing trillions to commodities and it was just going to stay there, and that's why there was a new level of oil demand.

Can those same accounts come in every day and take this relentless pasting no matter what the news? And do they believe the news, that they are losing money today because some storm went to Daytona and not to New Orleans?

Yesterday, I had Jim Hackett, the CEO of Anadarko Pete (NYSE: APC) (Cramer's Take) on "Mad Money at the Half," and he was flabbergasted at the activity in the futures pit and how unrealistic it has become. He's focused on natural gas, where he says the demand at $8 by industry -- the glass makers and chemical companies and steel and aluminum users -- is voracious. But the futures themselves just keep going down, regardless of the demand.

Several independent economists have said they expect a big U.S. bank to fail. It may be easy to ignore them because they are not affiliated with any of the large institutions that monitor financial companies. But now the former chief economist of the IMF says one of America's big banks will probably not make it.

According to Reuters, "The worst of the global financial crisis is yet to come and a large U.S. bank will fail in the next few months as the world's biggest economy hits further troubles, former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff said." Rogoff is currently an economist at Harvard.

The analysis pointing to the bank failure is based on the facts that the credit markets and housing situation will get much worse. Current earnings from banks and brokerage houses indicate that the prediction may well be true.

U.S. stock futures were lower Tuesday morning, indicating stocks would likely start the same. Investors' concerns about the financial sector dampened sentiment, but oil prices continued to decline and could offset some of the negative mood. Still, housing and inflation data are on tap before the market opens today. And of course earnings with The Home Depot already beating investors' expectations this morning but with Staples issuing a warning.

A day after smaller Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) reported a profit drop, The Home Depot (NYSE: HD) followed suit, reporting a 24% profit decline for the second quarter. It held onto its earnings outlook as second-quarter net fell 24% to $1.2 billion, or 71 cents per share. Sales declined 5.4% to $21 billion. Analysts had projected earnings per share of 61 cents on revenue of $20.58 billion. Home Depot shares rose 2% in premarket trading.

As he prepares to accept the Democratic presidential nomination, Barack Obama's allies in organized labor are worried that he is becoming too friendly with Wall Street types such as former Treasury Secretary and current Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) senior executive Robert Rubin.

According to Bloomberg News, a recent presentation by Richard Trumka of the AFL-CIO argued that unfettered global traded and inadequate government regulation resulted in lost manufacturing jobs. "It will do us little good if, when the next Democrat moves into the White House, Wall Street takes command of our country's economic policy," Bloomberg quotes Trumka's presentation as saying. The story adds that there is no doubt that Trumka is taking a shot at Rubin.

Trumka is unapologetic. The AFL-CIO already is flexing its political muscle and began looking at candidates for cabinet posts including the Treasury and Energy Departments along with the Federal Reserve. Obama's advisors deny that Rubin or anyone else has any particular sway over his economic policies. But there definitely is a tilt toward the center going on.

During my various commutes over the past week I have been hearing a new radio commercial about Intuitive Surgical Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG). The City of Hope Hospital in Los Angeles is advertising their Di Vinci robotic surgical procedures to attract patients.

They use the catch phrase "The science of saving lives" while promoting less invasive surgical procedures, shorter hospital stays, and faster recovery. These are well-known themes among the medical profession and investors but it is the first time I have heard the story promoted for a competitive advantage among hospitals. I am sure it won't be the last.

Certainly this will raise the bar among other hospitals competing for similar business and simply to keep their Di Vinci operating rooms productive, cost effective, and profitable. It also means that any hospital without the equipment will soon be deemed second rate, if they are not already.

Perhaps we will soon be hearing competing hospitals bragging about having multiple Di Vinci's or more trained doctors or the highest number of procedures or new procedures. Where will it end? When it is common place and every hospital is using the system.

Have you heard any radio advertising from hospitals in your city? Fans of Elvis Costello can check out Radio, Radio" at Last fm. here.

ISRG closed last Friday at $299.17 and is trading down slightly this morning. It has been hovering around $300 for the past two weeks.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of ISRG and have no relationship whatsoever with "Last fm" ,but I was reminded of the song and it is way cool.

Anyone looking for a reason to buy Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) shares now has three: The Jonas Brothers.

Kevin, Joe and Nick Jonas are in the words of Portfolio.com "poised to become a nine figure franchise" for the media company.

The biggest band few over the age of 15 care about recently released "A Little Bit Longer", their second for Disney's Hollywood Records. It immediately went platinum and then quickly became the most-downloaded album on iTunes, according to the magazine. Then there is the sold out tour, the book commemorating the sold-out tour and the 3D movie of said tour.

If that's not milking the franchise, I don't know what is.

The Jonas boys, who took in $12 million last year, also are wholesome enough to allay the concerns of parents worried about the recent R-rated behavior of Disney teen queen Miley Cyrus. She apparently is dating one of the Jonas boys, each of whom wears purity rings symbolizing their commitment to sexual abstinence. I know the Portfolio article specifies the identity of the brother but I have decided I have more important things to do than remember it.

Anyone like me who scoffs at the Jonas' bland of sweet inoffensive pop should remember that they are not the target audience. My niece Danielle, 12, is that audience. She thinks the Jonas' are the best thing since sliced bread -- make that bread itself. She has pictures of the Jonas' in her room including one she drew herself. Danielle is even trying to learn the guitar.

The Jonas Brothers. who play their own instruments, show no signs of slowing. For some handy Jonas figures check this out. Disney will continue to profit from their success as it tries to duplicate it many times over.

"Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) are taking the smartphone market by storm," says Toby Smith in his ChangeWave Investing.

"AAPL and RIMM are both pushing all of the other manufactures to the sidelines. It's clear that RIMM's BlackBerry is the dominating force in the corporate smartphone market, but the Apple iPhone has shaken things up quite a bit on the consumer side.

"The combination of the new Apple model flying off the shelves, and rumors of a postponement for one of RIMM's new releases, has raised questions among some analysts as to RIMM's ability to fight back.

"Research in Motion may be planning to release several new smartphones this year, including the KickStart, the Thunder and the already announced Bold.